Trump is hitting India to show MAGA he’s hitting Russia

On the campaign trail, Donald Trump vowed to keep America out of foreign wars: “They’re dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. I’ll have that done in 24 hours,” he said, casting himself against Democrats and touting his friendship with Vladimir Putin as proof he could bring back peace. But with Trump in office, the Ukraine war pulled Washington in deeper, with billions flowing to Kyiv and his promise of distance looking hollow. To convince his MAGA base, Trump has reached for tariffs, hitting Indian imports to project that he’s acting against Russia.

Trump, who inherited the Ukraine-Russia war from predecessor Joe Biden, has ended up making it his own battle. From publicly admonishing Ukrainian President Vlodomir Zelenskyy for “starting the war” to threatening Moscow with nuclear submarines, Trump’s shift has been fast over the last few months. But how does he show he is tough on Russia without confronting Moscow directly? Target India, which has trade and arms ties with Russia.

On July 30, he imposed a 25 percent tariff on all Indian goods, explicitly linking the move to New Delhi’s purchases of Russian arms and discounted crude.

Trump paired the announcement with a blast of sharp rhetoric on Truth Social, writing: “I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care.”

Days later, in another post, Trump said, “India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian oil, they are then, for much of the oil purchased, selling it on the open market for big profits. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the tariff paid by India to the USA.”

For a man who prides himself on transactional politics, the message was less about India’s policy choices than about the optics he could deliver to his supporters at home. It also drew India-US trade on edge.

TRUMP SPEAKS TO MAGA ON RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

The tariffs serve one audience above all: Make America Great Again or MAGA proponents.

They revive Trump’s old trade war posture, pleasing protectionists who cheered him the first time around when he went after China.

Tariffs are taxes directly paid by importers, who generally pass it on to the consumers, who are Americans in this case. How it is expected to hurt Indian exporters is by making their goods less competitive and by driving the demand for their goods due to higher pricing.

It is also true that his supporters are already not fans of Indians. Many in the MAGA base resent Indians, who they think “take American jobs” for a cheaper price.

More importantly, they give him a talking point to claim he is “hitting Russia”, not by sanctioning Moscow itself, which could risk escalation, but by punishing one of its biggest customers.

For his base, this becomes proof that Trump is acting tough on Putin while still keeping America out of another foreign war.

This strategy rests on shaky ground, but it has clearly energised parts of the MAGA base.

“To most people, tariffs sound like boring trade policy. To Trump, it’s the most beautiful word in the dictionary. Behind the chaos lies a master plan — Trump’s Tariff Doctrine: Blueprint for a MAGA World Order,” one supporter gushed on X.

Others have echoed that enthusiasm, praising the tariffs as proof of Trump’s toughness.

Yet critics see it differently. As one post put it, Trump is “fooling the base with optics” while shifting the costs onto ordinary Americans who will face higher prices.

REALITY CHECK NEEDED FOR TRUMP?

The reality of India’s Russia ties is more complicated than Trump’s rhetoric allows.

Since the Ukraine war began, Russia has surged to become India’s largest crude supplier, by early 2025 accounting for roughly 35-36% of its imports, up from around 2% in pre-war time, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) and trade tracking cited by Reuters.

In this context, New Delhi’s purchases are a matter of economic necessity, not some grand strategy to prop up Moscow.

At the heart of New Delhi’s approach is its long-standing doctrine of “strategic autonomy”.

That doctrine is not likely to change because of Trump’s tariffs. Instead, India has already pushed back hard, denouncing the move as “unjustified and unreasonable.”

Officials in New Delhi have also pointed to Western hypocrisy. After all, Europe still imports Russian energy in various forms, even while scolding others for doing the same.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs pointed out how the US “actively encouraged” India’s oil imports from Russia because traditional supplies were diverted to Europe after the outbreak of the conflict.

“With his scorched-earth tariff policies and disdain for norms, Trump is a bull in the geopolitical china shop. Dealing with him is a challenge for any country — even more so for risk-averse India. His latest threat prompts India to call out Western hypocrisy on trade with Russia,” wrote strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney.

A bruising trade war risks undermining that effort and pushing India to double down on its trade partnerships with Russia and even Beijing.

Moscow weighed in on Trump’s tariff threats against India, saying they were “attempts to force countries to stop trade relations with Russia”.

“We believe that sovereign countries should have, and have the right to choose their own trade partners, partners in trade and economic cooperation,” said Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov.

In standing up to Washington, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also sending out a message that the country is a power in its own right, not a subordinate to American interests. India, as a sovereign country, has all the right to pursue its foreign policy without caring for any intimidation.

As part of the posturing, Trump said last week that he ordered two nuclear submarines to move to the “appropriate regions” after remarks by Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia’s security council and former President.

The irony is unmistakable. Trump promised his supporters that he would avoid entanglements abroad and end costly foreign wars. But, he has not been able to do anything about it.

The tariffs, then, are less about hurting Russia than about staging a performance for MAGA, proving toughness through optics while leaving the real contradictions unresolved.

– Ends

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