Modi skips ASEAN 2025: Did Trump just win without showing up?

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced he would participate in the ASEAN 2025 summit in Kuala Lumpur virtually rather than in person, he cited Deepavali celebrations as the reason. But opposition parties and diplomatic observers aren’t buying it. They argue the real motivation was far more calculated: avoiding an uncomfortable encounter with US President Donald Trump.

The timing couldn’t be more sensitive. Trump has slapped 50% tariffs on Indian goods, sanctioned Russian oil suppliers that India depends on, and publicly criticised countries doing business with America’s adversaries. With crucial state elections looming in Bihar, the last thing Modi needed was a public dressing down from Trump about India’s oil purchases from Russia or widening trade deficits.

Yet the decision to stay home carries a steep diplomatic cost. China is exploiting Modi’s absence to cement its dominance in the region. Beijing is preparing to sign the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area 3.0 deal, whilst trade between China and ASEAN has already surpassed $900 billion. Belt and Road projects continue to flourish across Southeast Asia, from railways in Laos to industrial parks in Malaysia.

India’s relationship with ASEAN is worth over $130 billion in trade annually and represents a crucial counterweight to Chinese influence. Modi has championed his Act East Policy since 2014, positioning India as a democratic alternative to Beijing’s chequebook diplomacy. But his virtual attendance sends a worrying signal to ASEAN nations that carefully balance relationships between major powers.

The Congress party has accused Modi of ducking diplomacy and running from Trump, pointing to his recent absence from the Gaza Peace Summit as evidence of a pattern. Whilst India’s foreign minister will represent the country capably, summit diplomacy thrives on personal chemistry between leaders. Every missed handshake and corridor conversation weakens those bonds.

As Trump dominates headlines and Xi Jinping controls the corridors in Kuala Lumpur, India risks appearing reactive rather than assertive. In the theatre of Asian diplomacy, absence is never neutral, particularly when your rivals are signing deals and snapping photographs.

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