Nepal Gen Z protests: Nepal on boil, is India’s neighbourhood becoming US vs China playground

The last three years have witnessed tectonic shifts in India’s neighbourhood. From the Sri Lankan economic crisis, the ouster of Imran Khan in Pakistan, to the regime change in Bangladesh, each development saw a familiar script unfold – mass protests leading to the collapse of governments. Nepal finds itself on the list after the Himalayan country witnessed massive protests over the government’s move to ban social media platforms, leaving nearly 20 dead.

The protests in Nepal followed a similar pattern. What started as an agitation against a social media ban, quickly spiralled into protests against corruption, forcing Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli to resign. Sources said he is likely to flee to Dubai.

The sudden churn in Nepal begs the question – Can a ban on apps alone be behind such bloodshed, or, has the country become another playground for the US vs China proxy war?

MASSIVE PROTESTS ROCK NEPAL

The theory of an external hand behind the unrest in Nepal has gained traction as, despite the government lifting the social media ban, protests refused to die down. Chants of “KP chor, desh chhod (Oli is a thief, quit the country)” rent the air across the capital.

On Tuesday, agitators vandalised and set on fire the private residences of President Ramchandra Paudel, Oli and other ministers. The iconic Hilton hotel in Kathmandu, owned by one of the ruling party leaders, was also set ablaze.

A similar pattern played out in Bangladesh in 2024 and in Sri Lanka in 2022, where public fury over domestic issues quickly snowballed into anti-corruption protests. Like Nepal, these countries too witnessed impromptu youth-led movements and ransacking of the residences of their leaders.

Similar visuals of protesters looting items, breaking furniture, relaxing in bedrooms and taking a dip in the swimming pool were seen in both Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

It eventually forced Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina and then Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee to India and the Maldives respectively.

EXTERNAL HAND IN NEPAL UNREST?

But, what is fuelling the regime changes? At the heart of these movements, there seems to lie something deeper.

Tensions have been simmering in Nepal for months. Since Nepal became a republic in 2008, it has seen power rotating between Oli, widely seen as pro-China, Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ of the Maoist Centre, and five-time PM Sher Bahadur Deuba.

All the three leaders face corruption allegations, and the Nepalese youth have become increasingly frustrated with the political system. Economic stagnation and unemployment have only added fuel to the fire.

In fact, weeks before the ban on apps, a “nepo kid” campaign, spotlighting the lavish lifestyles of the children of Nepalese politicians and allegations of corruption, flooded social media.

Nepal has seen 14 governments, mostly in coalition, in the past 17 years. Earlier this year, protests calling for the restoration of the monarchy in Nepal broke out, with many claiming that the experiment of making Nepal a secular republic failed.

NEPAL’S CHINA TIES

It was among the string of agitations that has plagued KP Sharma Oli since he became the Prime Minister in July 2024. In the past one year, he has worked to build relations with China while alienating traditional ally India.

In fact, in a departure from the norm, Oli chose China for his first foreign trip after being sworn in for his fourth term in July. Traditionally, Nepalese leaders have chosen to visit India first.

During his China visit, Oli signed the framework for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Xi Jinping’s pet project. It secured debt-burdened Nepal a USD 41 million in financial assistance.

It is part of China’s long game to establish its hegemony in the South Asia region. Sri Lanka, a key recipient of Belt and Road loans, had defaulted on foreign debt in May 2022. It was among the reasons behind the economic crisis that saw the overthrow of the Rajapaksa government.

The US has always been wary of increasing Chinese influence in the South Asia region.

Earlier this year, the Donald Trump administration brought back from the brink the Millennium Challenge Nepal Compact, a package of energy and road upgrade projects that will see the US pump in USD 500 million in aid.

The revival of the project has put it in direct clash with China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Moreover, Oli’s participation in China’s Victory Day parade was viewed as Nepal being firmly in the anti-US camp.

It has led some analysts and experts to theorise that the US deep state, like in the case of Bangladesh, might be behind the unrest in Nepal.

“The protests are intensifying in Nepal this year. A US-friendly ‘monarchy’ may soon be established in Nepal, removing the China-friendly govt now. Just like Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh,” one tweeted.

SIMILAR SCRIPT IN BANGLADESH

Bangladesh also faced a similar interplay of domestic politics and international influence that led to the ouster of Hasina last year. There was already bad blood between Hasina and the US, which had deemed her re-election in January 2024 as “not credible and free and fair”.

After her ouster, Hasina accused the US of orchestrating her removal from power. She claimed that her refusal to allow setting up of a US airbase on St Martin’s Island, a strategic location in the Bay of Bengal, frustrated America. The US has long been wary of increasing Chinese influence in the Bay of Bengal.

The timing of the chaos in Nepal is also suspect, coming amid friction between India and the US and reports of Oli’s likely visit to India later in September.

With Nepal being dragged into a regime-change plot similar to Bangladesh, one cannot help but draw parallels. It raises troubling questions if Nepal has become another playground for geopolitical rivalries.

– Ends